NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for April 2022 Examination
1. The table mentioned
below shows the “Gross Production of Energy by Two Sources in
India from 2010-11 to 2015-16”.
Adopt Exponential Smoothing Method. Consider the Alpha (α) values 0.2, 0.5, 0.7
and
find out the one that is comparatively good for the prediction.
Forecast the value for year 2016-17.
|
Year |
Coal – (Million Tones) |
Lignite – (Million Tones) |
|
2010-11 |
532.7 |
37.73 |
|
2011-12 |
539.95 |
42.33 |
|
2012-13 |
556.4 |
46.45 |
|
2013-14 |
565.77 |
44.27 |
|
2014-15 |
609.18 |
48.27 |
|
2015-16 |
639.23 |
43.84 |
Source: Open
Government Data (OGD) Platform India
(10 Marks)
2. Consider the
following Decision alternative for the Raman Pahwa, he wants to invest in
stocks, and thought about two situations about tomorrow’s market condition. The
figures
(in INR) in the following table exhibit profit per unit of stock-investment.
payoff table:
|
Favorable market |
Unfavorable market |
|
|
Lakshmi pvt ltd |
55 |
26 |
|
Mehta Groups of industries |
43 |
38 |
|
Surya |
29 |
43 |
|
LT energy |
15 |
51 |
1. Draw the decision
tree
2. If we assign the
following probabilities to the states of nature, then determine the
EMV decision.
P(s1) = .4 P(s2) = .1 P(s3) = .3 P(s4) = .2
(10 Marks)
3.a. The proportion of
eligible voters in the next corporation election (in tumkur) who will vote
for the incumbent is assumed to be 55%. What is the probability that in a
random sample of
500 voters less than 49% say they will vote for the incumbent? Write your
conclusion. (5 Marks)
3.b. The top-selling
Amar tire is rated 70,000 KMs, which means nothing. In fact, the distance
the tires can run until they wear out is a normally distributed random variable
with a mean
of 82,000 KMs and a standard deviation of 6,400 KMs.
What is the probability that a tire wears out before 70,000 KMs?
What is the probability that a tire lasts more than 100,000 KMs?
Note: You may use Z-table for this.
Z-table link- Normal Table.xls (5 Marks)
No comments:
Post a Comment