NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
Assignment Marks: 30
Instructions:
All Questions carry equal marks.
All Questions are compulsory
All answers to be explained in not more than 1000 words for question 1 and 2 and for
question 3 in not more than 500 words for each subsection. Use relevant examples,
illustrations as far as possible.
All answers to be written individually. Discussion and group work is not advisable.
Students are free to refer to any books/reference material/website/internet for
attempting their assignments, but are not allowed to copy the matter as it is from the
source of reference.
Students should write the assignment in their own words. Copying of assignments from
other students is not allowed
Students should follow the following parameter for answering the assignment questions
1. Nemi Mehta is owning 50 Hectares of land near Junagadh. On his Farm, he cultivates
Giloy, which is a medicinal plant in Ayurveda. The below-given table shows the sales
of ‘Giloy Vati’ that his team is preparing as per one Ayurveda script (book), and the
amount they spend on the Advertisement of it.
For Theoretical Answer | |
Assessment Parameter | Weightage |
Introduction | 20% |
Concepts and Application related to the question | 60% |
Conclusion | 20% |
For Numerical Answer | |
Assessment Parameter | Weightage |
Understanding and usage of the formula | 20% |
Procedure / Steps | 50% |
Correct Answer & Interpretation | 30% |
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
Nemi’s problem is to analyze the effect of Advertisement on sales. Firstly, He wants to
understand the presence of a linear relationship between the sales and ‘amount spent in
advertisement’. He also wants to run a correlation and regression to know whether he
should keep spending money on Advertisements or not. If sales figures are not affected
by advertisement, he should not spend money on it.
So, take the EXCEL output of the following and write the interpretation.
Appropriate type of Graph which can exhibit the linear relation b/w variables.
Karl Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient
Regression Analysis
Graph that shows predicted v/s actual sales figures.
Region code | Sales (INR 000s) | Advertising (TV spots per month) (in INR, 000s) |
1 | 260.3 | 5 |
286.1 | ||
279.4 | 6 | |
410.8 | ||
5 | 438.2 | 12 |
6 | 315.3 | 8 |
565.1 | 11 | |
8 | 570.0 | 16 |
426.1 | 13 | |
10 | 315.0 | |
11 | 403.6 | 10 |
12 | 220.5 | |
13 | 343.6 | |
14 | 644.6 | 17 |
15 | 520.4 | 19 |
16 | 329.5 | |
17 | 426.0 | 11 |
18 | 343.2 | 8 |
19 | 450.4 | 13 |
20 | 421.8 | 14 |
3 4 9
7 9 7
4
9
9
(10 Marks)
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
2. The table given below is the ‘single year age population’ (taken from census 2011).
This table shows the population of people (age-wise) living in Leh at the time of the
census 2011 survey. Transform this ungrouped data into Grouped data by forming age
groups (only five age groups), and then find out Mean, Variance, Standard deviation,
Ogive, and Histogram. Write the summary based on your calculations.
Age in Yea rs | Populati on | Age in Yea rs | Populati on | Age in Yea rs | Populati on | Age in Yea rs | Populati on | Age in Yea rs | Populati on |
11 | 1998 | 22 | 2839 | 33 | 2696 | 44 | 1652 | ||
1 | 1958 | 12 | 1916 | 23 | 2935 | 34 | 2781 | 45 | 1806 |
2 | 1725 | 13 | 2138 | 24 | 3601 | 35 | 2799 | 46 | 1460 |
3 | 1814 | 14 | 2139 | 25 | 4110 | 36 | 2450 | 47 | 1226 |
4 | 1768 | 15 | 2096 | 26 | 4089 | 37 | 2142 | 48 | 1225 |
5 | 1871 | 16 | 2044 | 27 | 3716 | 38 | 2114 | 49 | 1006 |
6 | 1888 | 17 | 2027 | 28 | 3702 | 39 | 1725 | 50 | 1454 |
7 | 1768 | 18 | 2065 | 29 | 3084 | 40 | 2218 | ||
8 | 1712 | 19 | 2013 | 30 | 3475 | 41 | 1802 | ||
9 | 1780 | 20 | 2459 | 31 | 2844 | 42 | 1751 | ||
10 | 1862 | 21 | 2594 | 32 | 2684 | 43 | 1659 |
(10 Marks)
3.a. The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall using
Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available from 1997 to
2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the rainfall for the year 2017. To
know, what extent the prediction is correct, actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
millimeters) is provided. Based on MSE and MAD, find out which alpha values
among the three suggestions are relatively near to actual value?
SUBDIVISION | YEAR | ANNUAL (in MM) |
Gujarat Region | 1997 | 1068.9 |
Gujarat Region | 1998 | 1070 |
Gujarat Region | 1999 | 568.4 |
Gujarat Region | 2000 | 550.6 |
Gujarat Region | 2001 | 849 |
Gujarat Region | 2002 | 637.2 |
Gujarat Region | 2003 | 1160.3 |
Gujarat Region | 2004 | 1005.8 |
Gujarat Region | 2005 | 1316.4 |
Gujarat Region | 2006 | 1478 |
Gujarat Region | 2007 | 1178.9 |
Gujarat Region | 2008 | 911.1 |
Gujarat Region | 2009 | 641.6 |
Gujarat Region | 2010 | 1088.7 |
Gujarat Region | 2011 | 890.5 |
Gujarat Region | 2012 | 714 |
Gujarat Region | 2013 | 1118.6 |
Gujarat Region | 2014 | 705.7 |
Gujarat Region | 2015 | 622.9 |
Gujarat Region | 2016 | 764.9 |
(5 Marks)
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
3.b. A new gas-electric hybrid car has recently hit the market. The distance traveled on
1 gallon of fuel is normally distributed with a mean of 65 miles and a standard
deviation of 4 miles. Find the probability of the following events. (show the
concerned region by z curve)
1. The car travels more than 70 miles per gallon.
2. The car travels less than 60 miles per gallon.
3. The car travels between 55 and 70 miles per gallon.
(5 Marks)
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