NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for September 2022 Examination
Assignment Marks: 30
Instructions:
All Questions carry equal marks.
All Questions are compulsory
All answers to be explained in not more than 1000 words for question 1 and 2 and for
question 3 in not more than 500 words for each subsection. Use relevant examples,
illustrations as far as possible.
All answers to be written individually. Discussion and group work is not advisable.
Students are free to refer to any books/reference material/website/internet for attempting
their assignments, but are not allowed to copy the matter as it is from the source of
reference.
Students should write the assignment in their own words. Copying of assignments from
other students is not allowed.
Students should follow the following parameter for answering the assignment questions.
1. Avantika Mattoo working as an analyst in reputed pharmaceutical company wants to
invest her money in stocks. Her friends having expertise in stock market investments,
suggested her to invest money into ‘Reliance’ and ‘Maruti’ shares. Avantika’s economist
friend Niharika Dhar said there could be four different scenarios pertaining to the return
on Avantika’s investments. The figures of return on investment as per four different
scenarios presented in the table below.
Payoff
(profit
within one
month on
one unit of
share in
INR) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Reliance
Industry ltd. 55 43 29 15
Maruti 26 38 43 51
1) Set up the opportunity loss table.
2) Draw the decision tree (Note: You may use any software for making tree diagram, but
snapshot of handwritten tree will be unacceptable)
3) According to Niharika’s latest research, she has assigned the following probabilities to
the four scenarios (states of nature), determine the EMV decision; P(s1) = 0.4 P(s2) = 0.1
P(s3) = 0.3 P(s4) = 0.2.
(Note: Do mention the decision based on the analysis clearly in few sentences.)
(10 Marks)
2. From the following data, check the correlation of ‘Migrants person’ (Migration form
Urban areas of J & K to another urban areas of J &K) with the below given variables.
Write your conclusion with respect to the correlation coefficient and Scatter Diagram.
Draw the scatter plot (you may use EXCEL, SPSS, Python, R etc.)
Perform the correlation for the following pairs of variables
Migrant person numbers V/s ‘Number of Factory/Workshop/Work shed etc.’
Migrant person number V/s ‘Number of commercial establishments’
Migrant person number V/s ‘Number of towns’
Migrant person number V/s ‘Population per sq. km.’
(Note: no need to calculate correlation coefficient manually, use EXCEL formula, or any
other software)
(Note regarding the data access: You can copy the data from this pdf document and paste it
into your EXCEL workbook; you may have to work on alignment if it is distorted in Excel.)
Data for the analysis
Districts Migrant
person
numbers
Number of
Factory/
Workshop/
Workshed
etc.
Number of
commercial
establishments
Number of
towns
Population
per sq. km.
Kupwara 2667 188 6571 10 2212
Badgam 5370 273 5552 9 1996
Leh(Ladakh) 2621 176 3898 3 1902
Kargil 650 61 1711 1 7635
Punch 2038 67 3605 3 1604
Rajouri 4011 236 4656 4 2390
Kathua 11306 504 6952 6 2079
Baramula 19382 663 12171 7 2871
Bandipore 4866 156 3258 3 1317
Srinagar 94844 3575 47986 5 4141
Ganderbal 3041 231 2418 3 1852
Pulwama 7939 257 4885 5 2087
Shupiyan 1700 30 1673 1 3007
Anantnag 13545 919 14079 12 2880
Kulgam 2621 243 3902 7 1619
Doda 2297 76 3016 2 1655
Ramban 1171 41 1768 3 783
Kishtwar 569 45 1765 1 23595
Udhampur 10873 549 6795 6 2475
Reasi 2085 28 3677 5 692
Jammu 139422 2410 46539 20 3034
Samba 5349 685 5162 6 1383
Source: Census of India.
(10 Marks)
3. a. The number of customers who enter a ‘German’ supermarket-Gandhinagar each hour is
‘normally’ distributed with a mean of 600 and a standard deviation of 200. The supermarket
is open 16 hours per day. What is the probability that the total number of customers who
enter the supermarket in one day is greater than 10,000?
(Note: Show the stepwise calculation and write the interpretation based on the final answer)
(5 Marks)
3. b. Shree Ganga Taploo University bookstore claims that 50% of its customers are satisfied with
the service and prices.
If this claim is true, what is the probability that in a random sample of 600 customers less
than 45% are satisfied with services and price?
(Note: Show the stepwise calculation and write the interpretation based on the final answer)
(5 Marks)
